What about $1 trillion?

Posted On 11:12 PM by emily |

Writing up some notes from my interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin a while ago, I come back to this passage in his book, Too Big To Fail. This is the moment when the team behind the $800bn US bailout of Wall Street are trying to come up with ways to justify a cost that they can through Congress to get permission to exceed the Treasury spending cap of $500bn:

“What about $1 trillion?” Kashkari said.
“We'll get killed,” Paulson said grimly.
“No way,” Fromer said, incredulous at the sum. “Not going to happen. Impossbile.”
“Okay,” Kashkari said. “How about $700 billion?”
“I don't know,” Fromer said. “That's better than $1 trillion.”
The numbers were at best, guestimates, and all three men knew it. The relevant figure would ultimately be the one that represented the most they could possibly ask from Congress without raising too many questions. Whatever the sum turned out to be, they knew they could count on Kashkari to perform some sort of mathematical voodoo to justify it. “There's about $11 trillion of residential mortgages, there's about $3 trilion of commerical mortgages, that leads to $14 trillion, roughly five per cent of that is $700 bilion.” As he plucked numbers from thin air even Kashkari laughed at the absurdity of it all.

The all-knowing central planner in action.
3 Response to 'What about $1 trillion?'
  1. Roehamster
    http://www.emilynomates.com/2010/09/what-about-1-trillion.html?showComment=1284964562192#c1890331762137717546'> September 20, 2010 7:36 AM

    Well, i'm reassured.

     

  2. Anonymous
    http://www.emilynomates.com/2010/09/what-about-1-trillion.html?showComment=1284971686049#c1026387286731854010'> September 20, 2010 9:34 AM

    It's not just bailouts that have this 'ethos'. Right down the line - to the very smallest business grants and loans the prevailing attitude has been (still is?): 1st How much do you reckon we could get. 2nd How do we justify it.
    It's a game of bluff, except in reality no one actually wants to see the other's hand. It would be too frightening!

     

  3. Engineer
    http://www.emilynomates.com/2010/09/what-about-1-trillion.html?showComment=1285014758265#c7739820852516082516'> September 20, 2010 9:32 PM

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again - economics is entirely a human construct, and follows no natural laws. Consequently, if in doubt, just guess or interpret to your own advantage. Then invent some bull.... to justify your prognostications.

    Try designing bridges or chemical plants like that, and you'll be out of a job very swiftly.

    We wonder why the world's economies are in a mess?